Causes are varied and complicated.
In California, student enrollment has been declining for many years now. However, rates are dropping at faster now than before the pandemic and for the first time since 2014, charter school enrollment is also down.
Explaining why this is happening is a complicated matter. Most understand that the cost of living, especially related to the lack of affordable housing, has sent many families elsewhere. But other causes are also at play. Birth rates have been declining in California and across the country at steady rates since the 2008 recession.
The pandemic exacerbated the problem when closed schools left students at home to work or take care of younger siblings. An estimated 3 million students were lost during 2020, and schools have yet to hear back from many of them.
In almost all cases, these declines present Districts with challenges that are difficult to overcome. In addition to underutilized facilities and staffing reassignments, lower enrollment means lower funding received from the State. And to complicate matters, many districts are opting to spend money on marketing strategies, competing with neighboring districts, charters, and private schools to attract and retain students.
There is some hope on the issue of budget. Senate Bill 830, proposed by Senator Anthony Portantino, would pay districts based on enrollment, not attendance. And Governor Newsom is proposing that a 3-year average be used to calculate 2022-23 funding.
Here are a few more helpful resources:
- CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics “Birth and Natality”
- NEA’s News “Finding the Lost Students of the Pandemic” published July, 2021
- CalMatters Article “California public school enrollment drops below 6 million mark,” published April 2022
- Sen Anthony Portantino’s proposed SB-830 Education Finance: Supplemental Education Funding
TRiGroup’s Advice
- Be prepared to debate the WHY behind your District’s enrollment drops. Sadly and all too often, some people try to connect drops in enrollment with their own personal gripes about the District. Have your data ready.
- Be prepared for significant shifts between your adopted budget in June and your revised budget next fall. If even some of the changes are implemented through the State legislative process, they will have a real impact on how dollars are allocated.